Gosh, I haven't posted anything since just before Christmas? Well, the first couple of months this year were scary, and through March 9, downright upsetting.
However, the market has lifted off of this bottom, with rallies interspersed with fallbacks and consolidation days. However, the market is simply now no longer on its butt, but on its knees. We have a long way to go before it is on its feet, steady, and marching forward (with occasional detours).
Much of this rally is a move away from the extreme pessimism we were experiencing; the bulk of the relief is come in the form of more detailed revelations of the actual workings of government programs. Banks performed better than expected in January and February, although the market did pull back today when those same banks indicated that March would not be as good.
I must re-iterate here that the market in the long run is a LEADING indicator. This means that it generally tends to point to where the economy will be in six to nine months. For the most part, you can get the impression that the market responds to news (good - up , bad - down), and in the short run it does indeed respond to news, especially surprises. But we could possibly now begin to think that this lift of the market off of the bottom may be telling us that the economy will start to lift off its bottom starting at the end of the year.
But, it's no use making too much of anything right now, as even the announced government programs have not begun to operate. It's too soon to make any statements about whether or not these programs will work (although there is no shortage of pundits out there who are ready with opinions). We want relief, and we want it now, and it's hard to wait for the results.
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